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Cashflow beats expectations (yet again)
Forterra's year-end trading statement confirmed results are expected to be “in line” and the outlook for 2019 appeared to be benign. Once again, net debt declined faster than expected – a regular feature since the company floated in April 2016. We are not changing estimates, other than nudging down debt. We believe that increasing housing construction, across all tenures, and a constrained and consolidated supply base should continue to underpin prospects.
Valuation. For FY 2019 E, the stock is trading, on our estimates, at a 2019 P/E of 9.1x, a yield of 4.5% and EV/EBITDA of 6.5x. This compares with consensus for main rival, Ibstock, of 11.6x, 5.7% and 9.0x respectively.
#PANR Malcy comments on Great Bear deal (Interview starts at 44 minutes)
12 December 2018
FILING OF NI 43-101 FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR THE ARAGUAIA NICKEL PROJECT INCLUDING OPPORTUNITY FOR A STAGE 2 EXPANSION TO DOUBLE NICKEL PRODUCTION
Horizonte Minerals Plc, (AIM/TSX: HZM) ('Horizonte' or 'the Company') the nickel development company focused inBrazil, is pleased to announce that it has filed the Feasibility Study ('FS' or the 'Study') for the Araguaia Ferronickel Project ('Araguaia', or 'the Project') inBrazil'sPará State on SEDAR. The Study has been prepared in accordance with the National Instrument 43-101 - standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects ('NI 43-101') and was previously announced on the 29thOctober 2018.
The Study confirms Araguaia as a Tier 1 project with a large high-grade scalable resource, a long mine life and a low-cost source of ferronickel for the stainless-steel industry. The Stage 1 FS design allows for future construction of a second Rotary Kiln Electric Furnace ('RKEF') process line ('Stage 2 expansion' or 'Stage 2'), with potential to double Araguaia's production capacity from 14,500 tonnes per annum ('t/a') nickel up to 29,000 t/a nickel. The results of this Stage 2 expansion study are included as an opportunity in Section 25 of the NI 43-101 Technical Report with the economics highlighted below.
Stage 1 - FS Highlights:
· Initial 28-year mine life generates cash flows after taxation ofUS$1.6 billionwith sufficient mineral resources to extend beyond 28 years;
· Estimated post-tax Net Present Value('NPV') of US$401 millionand Internal Rate of Return ('IRR') of 20.1% using the base case nickel price forecast ofUS$14,000per tonne3('/t');
· Upon development, the Project is expected to produce an average of 14,500 tonnes of nickel contained within approximately 52,000 tonnes ferronickel per annum, utilising the proven RKEF technology currently used at over 40 mines around the world;
· The base case FS economics assume a flat nickel price ofUS$14,000/t for the entire 28-year mine life based on Wood Mackenzie's short-term forecast;
· C1 (Brook Hunt) cash cost year 1 to year 10 ofUS$3.08per pound ('/lb') of nickel (US$6,794/t), making Araguaia a low-cost producer;
· Using the consensus mid-term nickel price ofUS$16,800/t, the post-tax NPV increases toUS$740 millionwith an IRR of 28.1%, reflecting the significant leverage that the Project returns have to any future increase in nickel prices; and
· Capital cost estimate ofUS$443 million(AACE class 3), includingUS$65.3 millionof contingencies equating to 17.2% of total capex budget.
Stage 2 - Second Line Expansion Highlights:
A key part of the FS Stage 1 Project design was that the RKEF plant and associated infrastructure was designed to accommodate the addition of a second RKEF processline (Stage 2 expansion), with potential to double Araguaia's production capacity from 14,500 t/a nickel up to 29,000 t/a nickel. The Project Mineral Resource inventory has the grade and scale to support the increase in plant throughput from 900 kt/pa (Stage 1) to the Stage 2 rate of 1.8 Mt/a supporting the twin line RKEF flow sheet. The Stage 2 expansion assumes operating at Stage 1 production rate of 900 kt/pa for three years, after which free cash flows would be reinvested to expand the plant to 1.8 Mt/pa by the addition of a second line. All figures below represent this combined production of stage 1 for 3 years followed by the enlarged production for the remainder of the Life of Mine.
· The Stage 2 expansion, assumed in year 3, supports a 26-year mine life generating cash flows after taxation ofUS$2.6 billion;
· No increase in upfront capital cost which remains at the same level at the FS Stage 1 ofUS$443 million, the Stage 2 expansion is financed through operational cash flow;
· Estimated post-tax Net Present Value('NPV') of US$741 millionand Internal Rate of Return ('IRR') of 23.8% using the base case nickel price forecast ofUS$14,000/t;
· Using a nickel price ofUS$11,000/t generates cash flows after taxation and payback of capital ofUS$1.0 billion;
· Nickel grade of 1.82% for the first 10 years of the Stage 2 operation;
· Annual nickel production of 29,000 t/a;
· C1 (Brook Hunt) cash cost year 1 to Year 10 ofUS$3.00per pound ('/lb') of nickel (US$6,613/t), making Araguaia a low-cost producer. Life of mine C1 cash cost ofUS$3.51per pound ('/lb') of nickel (US$7,737/t); and
· Using the consensus mid-term nickel price ofUS$16,800/t, the post-tax NPV8for the Stage 2 option increases toUS$1,264 millionwith an IRR of 31.8%.
Horizonte CEO, Jeremy Martin, commented;
"Following on from the successful completion oftheFeasibility Studyfor the Araguaia ferronickel project, we are very pleased to file the 43-101 Feasibility Technical Report which includes as an opportunity the Stage 2 expansion to add a second RKEF line to the Project. The Stage 2 expansion would potentially increase annual nickel production from 14,500 tonnes per annum to 29,000 tonnes per annum whilst demonstrating economies of scale for both operating and capital costs. For this scenario the upfront pre-production capital cost remains unchanged atUS$443 millionand the incremental capital expenditure to build the stage 2 expansion, is anticipated to be financed out of operational free cash flow. The FS design of the RKEF plant and all associated infrastructure was configured to allow a second RKEF line to be added at a future time, as such the Stage 2 expansion benefits from the existing utilities and infrastructure expenditure. Significant items such as the powerline, water pipeline, overall process plant site, utilities, and slag storage facility already have sufficient capacity built in during the Stage 1 planning to meet the desired production increase.
The economics of the Stage 2 expansion in year 3 are compelling with the Base Case NPV8ofUS$741 millionand IRR of 23.8%, increasing to an IRR of 31.8% when applying consensus nickel price assuming no change in the upfront capital investment for the Stage 1 single line RKEF plant as shown in the FS. If we apply a nickel price ofUS$11,000per tonne nickel, the enlarged twin line plant generates cash flows after taxation and pay back of capital ofUS$1.0 billion.
We have always maintained that Araguaia has a high grade scalable mineral resource with only a small part utilised for the single line plant. As demonstrated in the Stage 2 expansion the resource can comfortably support the increased capacity for over 26 years with the first 10 years averaging 1.82% nickel which places Araguaia on the upper range of the global grade curve even with the increased mining rate.
The recent weakness in nickel prices appears to be reflection of macroeconomics and does not appear to have impacted wider consensus of the positive future potential of the nickel market. Demand versus supply deficits remain forecast for the short term. Inventories on the LME continue to fall with significant new supply required for the stainless-steel market which is growing at 5%year on year, with new demand driven from the EV battery sector. Araguaia is anticipated to come online in 2021 and be placed in the lower quartileon the laterite C1 cost curve (year 1 to year 10 ofUS$3.08per pound of nickel (US$6,794/t)making it one of the lower cost new nickel projects.Meanwhile the forward C1 cost curve is expected to consistently rise due to the rising costs of inputs as well as the reducing global grade profile across existing mines.
The successful completion of the Feasibility Study and the positive economics from the Stage 2 expansion all confirm that Araguaia is a tier 1 asset demonstrating flexibility and scalability with compelling economics.
The Company is well funded as we work to advance Araguaia to the construction stage and start to advance our second 100% owned Vermelho Nickel Cobalt project as part of the company's strategy to become a leading nickel development Company. I look forward to updating the market on progress as we move into 2019."
Stage 2 Second Line Expansion Details:
The FS plant ore feed rate of 900kt/a is based on a single line RKEF plant (Stage 1). This size plant represents the optimal capacity for an achievable capital cost for project financing for a single project junior development company. However, the Stage 1 plant capacity underutilises the significant Mineral Resource that HZM has within the project area (~119Mt Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources at 1.27% Ni). In the FS, the cut-off grade is 1.4% Ni and represents a "high-grade" option. The marginal cut-off grade for the Project is closer to 1.0% Ni. This means that there is a significant quantity of potentially economic material that is not mined or processed in the current Stage 1 FS schedule. Accordingly, the opportunity contemplated here is that the Stage 1 production scenario (the FS Base Case) is built and produces at an initial production level 14,500 t/a of Nickel, and that the Stage 2, expansion in year 3 is implemented as the project starts generating cash flows, thereby increasing total production to 29,000 t/a Nickel.
To explore the potential value of increasing the production rate at Araguaia, a Stage 2 expansion to 1,800kt/a plant feed in Year 3 was contemplated at a scoping level. In this Stage 2 scenario, Snowden completed pit optimisations based on the FS costs and modifying factors. The pit optimisations targeted any material determined to be economic, rather than the elevated Ni cut-off grade applied in the FS. Only Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources were considered in this scenario. Overall, the target was to achieve a similar mine life to the FS schedule (~28 years). This was achieved by selecting a revenue factor pit shell equivalent to a nickel price ofUS$11,200/t Ni which yields 44.0Mt of ore feed.
The Stage 1 FS plant layout was designed to allow for the future construction of a second RKEF line. A significant portion of the Stage 1 RKEF plant and associated infrastructure has sufficient capacity to support the Stage 2 expansion, resulting in substantially lower capital costs to implement the second RKEF line. The Stage 1 equipment and infrastructure that does not require upgrading for Stage 2 includes;
· The main power line to the plant;
· The principle road and bridge infrastructure in-bound and outbound to the mine site;
· Overall plant site layout, plant road / offices / stores / workshops;
· Refinery facility;
· The slag storage facility; and
· Water abstraction pipeline.
As part of the preparation of the Stage 2 expansion, HZM has completed a scoping level estimate of the costs associated with implementing a second RKEF line after Year 3 of the mine life using the FS capex as a basis and locating the additional equipment in the areas within the existing FS plant layout. A summary of the estimated direct equipment costs along with associated civil works and installation costs for the Stage 2 expansion are shown inTable1.
"W Resources PLC - Mechanical Completion of La Parrilla Crusher Plant #WRES https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/rns/announcement/18704eda-6e36-4fc6-92a4-f82cf88600c7 via @voxmarkets @WResourcesPlc"
RNS Number : 8945J
W Resources PL
W Resources Plc
("W" or the "Company")
Mechanical Completion of the La Parrilla Crusher Plant
W Resources Plc (AIM:WRES), the tungsten, copper and gold mining company with assets inSpainandPortugal, is delighted to announce the mechanical completion of the La Parrilla crusher plant.
Mechanical completion of the crusher plant paves the way for commissioning of mined ore in January 2019.
The crushing circuit has been carefully engineered to minimise creation of tungsten fines and is designed to process 350 tonnes per hour ("tph") of ore. It comprises of a jaw crusher and secondary cone crusher both with vibrating grizzlies prior to size reduction and two tertiary cone crushers in closed circuit with a double deck banana screen. All of which are supplied by a top tier crushing equipment provider, Metso Minerals Portugal, Lda. The circuit has been designed for modular expansion to 700tph requiring no modifications to the installed infrastructure in the future and is currently configured to feed X-Ray ore sorting going forwards. The high level of automation in the design and robust wear liner packages will permit strong operational control and minimise maintenance requirements going forwards.
Michael Masterman, Chairman of W Resources, commented:"The crusher is the first of the three La Parrilla plants to be completed and it's a great credit to the team to complete it ahead of schedule and on budget. We are looking forward to first mined ore into the crusher early in the new year which will contribute to an increase in production rates from La Parrilla in line with the planned ramp-up programme".
#BIDS bidstack have won a 3 year exclusive in-game advertising contract with @Codemasters for two titles starting with off-road racing franchise of all time: DiRT. Dirt Rally 2 will launch February 2019 on PS4, XBOX, PC.
Codemasters are huge and have a collaboration with NetEase, who are listed on Nasdaq (NetEast MCAP $30bn). Looks like BIDS are making some great connections.
14 November 2018
AB Dynamics plc
("AB Dynamics" or "ABD" or the "Group")
Final Results for the year ended 31 August 2018
AB Dynamics plc (AIM:ABDP), the designer, manufacturer and supplier of advanced testing systems and measurement products to the global automotive industry, is pleased to announce its final results for the year ended 31 August 2018.
· Revenue increased 51% to£37.05m(FY17:£24.57m)
· Reported profit before tax increased 78% to£7.95m(FY17:£4.47m)
· Profit before tax* increased 45% to£8.61m(FY17:£5.94m)
· Cash flow from operations increased by£7.8mto£9.9m(FY17:£2.1m)
· Basic EPS increased 74% to 36.29p (FY17: 20.83p), Diluted EPS increased 70% to 35.03p (FY17: 20.56p)
· Proposed final dividend increased 10% to 2.20p per ordinary share (FY17: 2.00p)
· Strong balance sheet with net cash of£15.94mas at 31 August 2018 (31 August 2017:£9.62m)
* Adjusted to exclude non-cash charges in respect of share options of£0.659m(FY17:£1.465m)
· Dr. James Routh appointed CEO, with effect from 1 October 2018
· AB Dynamics Europe GmbH facility established and operational
· Received first order for Advanced Driving Simulator (aVDS) to be delivered in FY19
· First orders received for new LaunchPad ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance System)platform
· Demand for track testing products continues at an all-time high
· Strong forward order book, providing visibility into Q3 FY19
Tony Best, Non-Executive Chairman of AB Dynamics, commented:
"I am pleased to be able to report that the Group has delivered another record year of revenue and adjusted profit. Our customers remain very active in introducing ever more complex ADAS equipment into their vehicles and in the development of semi- and fully-autonomous vehicles.
I am also particularly delighted to welcome Dr. James Routh as our new Chief Executive Officer. James joins the Group from Diploma PLC where he was responsible for the International Seals businesses outsideNorth America. James has a track record of delivering strong growth, both organically and through carefully selected, value-enhancing acquisitions.
Despite our very strong growth, order intake has continued to run ahead of sales and this has provided the Group with a healthy order book into our new financial year and, as usual, visibility into our third quarter. Against this pleasing backdrop, our progress continues to require ever greater investment in systems and our operational capability to ensure that we are fully capable of supporting current and future growth. In the coming year, we expect to make further investment in new product development, marketing, service and support, our growing overseas footprint and, of course, our people, whose skills and energy remain so important to our future success. Inevitably this investment will provide some constraint to our operating margin, butthe Board remains confident that, under the leadership of our new CEO, we are well positioned to deliver a year of solid progress."
"AB Dynamics PLC - Final Results #ABDP https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/rns/announcement/a776cb85-d65c-493d-8b4e-78f5d31af40c via @voxmarkets @ABDynamics"
12 November 2018
KIZILTEPE QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
Ariana Resources plc ("Ariana" or "the Company"), the exploration and development company operating inTurkey, is pleased to announce its operating results for the quarter ended 30 September 2018 for the Kiziltepe Mine ("Kiziltepe" or "the Project"). Kiziltepe is part of the Red Rabbit Joint Venture ("JV") with Proccea Construction Co. and is 50% owned by Ariana through its shareholding in Zenit Madencilik San. ve Tic. A.S. ("Zenit").
· Gross income for the quarter isUS$10.12 millionand average revenue per gold ounce isUS$1,334(due to silver credit), against an average realised gold price ofUS$1,198per ounce.
· Production and sale of 7,588 ounces of gold during the quarter ending 30 September 2018; 6% increase quarter on quarter ("QoQ").
· Operating cash costs for the quarter are estimated atUS$330per ounce#.
· Operational mill availability running at 98% and utilisation at 93% during September.
· 49,272 tonnes ore milled during the period ending 30 September 2018 at an average head grade of 4.94 g/t Au.
· Process recoveries of gold remain high at c.91% at the end of the quarter.
Dr. Kerim Sener, Managing Director, commented:
"These quarterly results have yet again demonstrated record performance for the Kiziltepe Mine and we are now well on track to exceed our production guidance for the year. Since start-up in 2017 the JV has produced about 30,000 ounces of gold and over 200,000 ounces of silver. Our operating cash cost per ounce has continued to remain low, due in part to a marked fall in value of the Turkish Lira (-28%), a substantial increase in by-product silver credit (+36%) and maintenance of high grades through the plant during the period. As at the end of the quarter, 40% of the JV construction capital loan ofUS$33 millionhas been repaid, with the remaining balance to be repaid between now and April 2020. Monthly intercompany loan repayments from the JV to our wholly owned subsidiary, Galata Madencilik San. ve Tic. Ltd. since early Q1 2018, has now reached approximatelyUS$1.6 millionfor the year (c.US$200,000per month)."
· Production of ore from the open-pit achieved an average rate of 27,743 tonnes per month over the period, with a peak rate of over 28,285 tonnes achieved in July.
· Gross capital loan repayments by Zenit to Turkiye Finans Katilim Bankasi A.S. have been made on their scheduled basis and have amounted toUS$13.2 millionin aggregate as at the end of September 2018 (c.US$19.8 millionremaining); c.US$1.8 millionwas repaid in Q3 2018.
· Stage 2a Tailings Storage Facility ("TSF") liners installation is fully complete; final Stage 2b liners not due to be installed until mid-2020.
· Road construction underway since early August to facilitate the diversion of the current district highway around the open pit will be completed, including its asphalt base-course, by December.
* All production figures are quoted gross with respect to the JV in this announcement.
#Operating cash costs are inclusive of on-site costs and off-site charges and royalties specific to the project. It also includes adjustments for stockpile balances at the end of each quarter, in addition to an adjustment for by-product silver. They exclude finance costs, taxes and development capital. The definition used to derive the cash costs is essentially the same as that used within the feasibility study. This cash cost was calculated based on unaudited figures obtained from Zenit.
Table 1 Production statistics for the Kiziltepe Mine in Q3 2018 and for the period mid-March 2017 to end-September 2018 (life of mine to date).
View attachment 7617
Summary of Project
The Kiziltepe operation is currently expected to deliver approximately an average of 20,000 oz gold equivalent per annum over eight years of initial mine life, for a total of up to 160,000 oz gold equivalent based on current resources. The operating company, Zenit Madencilik San. ve Tic. A.S. (50:50 JV between Ariana and Proccea) will continue to make repayments against its loan from Turkiye Finans Katilim Bankasi A.S. based on a contractual schedule. Construction capital loan repayments will have been completed by April 2020 and, during this time, excess cash-flow from the operation is being used to make proportional repayments of loans provided by Ariana and Proccea jointly to the JV for exploration and development respectively. After the repayment of all loans, profits from the operation will be shared on a 51:49 basis between Ariana and Proccea respectively.
Commercial production was initiated at Kiziltepe during July 2017 and formal quarterly production reporting commenced. The Company also completed a new resource estimate for the project based on recent drilling and geological interpretation. Detailed technical and economic assessments will be completed on several satellite vein systems which are not currently in the mining plan, in anticipation of these being developed in future years. The Company is currently targeting a minimum ten-year mine life, which will require the addition of a further 40,000 oz gold equivalent in reserves outside of the four main pits (Arzu South, Arzu North, Banu and Derya) that are currently scheduled to be mined. Management is confident that this can be achieved assuming the conversion of existing resources to reserves.