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(DDP) DP Poland Plc Share Chat

Discussion in 'General Share Chat (DPP)' started by ADrunkenMarkus, Aug 11, 2015.

  1. bentley15

    bentley15 Demi God of BlueShare

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    Morning Mark, nice to see you here again doing sound research and still believing in two of my 'intended' investments - all being well !!

    I am still way down on my earlier investments but feel that my problem has been the timing. I have jumped in TOO SOON on all my major ones except one. This one is doing very nicely and I am sure will continue to do so. I bought in to SXX several times at around 19 to 25p. This remains both strong and positive. The others Mmm but I remain optimistic.

    I have liked and followed DPP and CAKE and still feel there is no rush at the moment. For your interest I have a third one that I am following SOM. It is a really interesting company and you might like to take a quick peek !!

    Bentley
     
  2. ADrunkenMarkus

    ADrunkenMarkus A Legendary Member

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    I think I'll do that Bentley.

    For me, DPP is very much a long termer and I am investing on the basis of it successfully rolling out across Poland and being valued very much higher in ten years' time. My average price is - I think - 18p so I am up strongly at today's levels but feel this will be a bargain for the long run.

    Thanks.
     
  3. bentley15

    bentley15 Demi God of BlueShare

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    I agree with you here Mark re : DPP and feel the same about SOM. CAKE I like and is also long term but do not feel it will rise at quite the same rate as the other take.

    I will keep an eye open for you and your posts. Happy Easter to you and all your family :D

    Bentley
     
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  4. ADrunkenMarkus

    ADrunkenMarkus A Legendary Member

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    Thanks Bentley.

    Good wishes to you and yours too!
     
    bentley15 likes this.
  5. bentley15

    bentley15 Demi God of BlueShare

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    Just taken a more detailed look at the SP trend over twelve months and the video presentation by Peter Shaw the CEO of DPP. Then again I looked at your recent email above !!

    It is April tomorrow and there is a fall just as you thought might happen :oops:

    I have expressed my view earlier that a good time to invest is when the SP is at a low point and sell when it is unlikely to go much higher and more likely to fall due to profit taking :rolleyes:

    I am thinking next Tuesday is going to be a day when the SP reaches a pretty low point in the Strategic Cycle of DPP - a very well managed company with a very well established and well focussed management. It had been my intention not to invest any more until my current investments began to turn upwards or NEVER again if they just go down further.

    Perhaps it is time I dipped my toes in the water once again following your reminder to me ( et al ). Thus I am going to put a bi more at risk over the weekend on Tuesday morning and see how we get on. If you are right, and I do substantially agree with you, this will be one for the long term :p

    Also I may be able to judge how well I am now beginning to judge when we have reached the low point in a cycle. I will let you know later :confused: Bentley
     
  6. ADrunkenMarkus

    ADrunkenMarkus A Legendary Member

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    I'm intending to top up next week. :)

    For me, the issue is do I think the company will be worth substantially more in the future than it is today. My answer is yes, therefore I'm topping up. My holding is solidly in profit but, if it wasn't, it would not really influence me unless I wanted to sell and therefore I'd consider the price I could sell at. My focus is on buying more and so the lower price is a benefit, even though I am 'averaging up' because my earlier shares were bought so much lower. And I am paying less than I would have done if I'd topped up six months to a year or so ago.

    On page 12/17 of the pdf. presentation:
    http://dppoland.com/2015/wp-content/uploads/2017_results_presentation_March-2018.pdf ... it states:

    There's clearly scope to issue more equity if needed, as they have left some room in there (not 'anticipated'). I would not object if the circumstances warranted it. Nonetheless, they have more cash than you would think based on a quick glance of their balance sheet and financials.

    Key for me is that the end seems to be in sight for any further substantial equity issuance and they've now set a target of 100 stores by year end 2020 and 145 stores by year end 2023, which seems quite achievable and a steady rollout. (Peel Hunt had modelled the company's current 75p target price on 282 stores by 2030.) If DP Polska does go cash positive, ahead of the group as a whole, then the ability to access some debt finance is positive news IMHO.

    Best wishes

    Mark.
     
  7. bentley15

    bentley15 Demi God of BlueShare

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    ( Peel Hunt had modelled the company's current 75p target price on 282 stores by 2030.)

    Thanks for all your enthusiasm and research on DPP Mark but would you be kind enough to explain for me a little more clearly the above extract taken from your post !

    Hopefully the strategic model used by DPP will help to avoid any spectacular rises and falls which we find on other companies.

    Easter will soon be over but that means that Summer will start to take hold :p

    Bentley
     
  8. ADrunkenMarkus

    ADrunkenMarkus A Legendary Member

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    I don't have the full details Bentley, but my understanding - I think it was elsewhere on this forum - was that Peel Hunt had come up with their current 75p a share target price by assuming 282 stores in 2030 and working back from there on the basis of estimated cash flows. It's really just an aside. And I expect it's out of date if they used the original estimates of store EBITDA which have now been surpassed by the mature stores.

    Thanks.
     
  9. ADrunkenMarkus

    ADrunkenMarkus A Legendary Member

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    I added to DPP early in April at about 30p. Happy it's now 35p but it just goes to show how up and down shares like this are. Over time, continued growth in revenues and reduced group EBITDA losses will be beneficial and if they can get to breakeven without further equity issuance then that will be great.

    Best wishes

    Mark.
     
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  10. ADrunkenMarkus

    ADrunkenMarkus A Legendary Member

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    I may add more if it stays around 30p!

    Best wishes

    Mark.
     
  11. bentley15

    bentley15 Demi God of BlueShare

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    Nice to see you are still here Mark. It seems amazing to me that no one else seems to follow this particular company. I feel I am learning - very gradually - more about the timing of investments BUY and SELL but this is not easy to do. If only it were :cool:

    For the moment I am sticking to my guns but when I do make some SELLS it will be a time when DPP may be one of my serious considerations to re-invest.

    For your interest one of my other watched companies is SOM !

    Best wishes, Bentley
     
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  12. ADrunkenMarkus

    ADrunkenMarkus A Legendary Member

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    I've bought more DPP at 8p. :)

    Best wishes

    Mark.
     

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