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(IOF) Iofina Share Chat

Discussion in 'General Share Chat (IOF)' started by Squire007, Mar 17, 2016.

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  1. Squire007

    Squire007 Demi God of BlueShare

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    The bottom has been hit here, someone after 1% of the Co on L2 ... Mmmm !???o_O:)
     
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  2. Squire007

    Squire007 Demi God of BlueShare

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  3. Squire007

    Squire007 Demi God of BlueShare

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    Coming up to news time .... I am ready but alone ... lol
     
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  4. Squire007

    Squire007 Demi God of BlueShare

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    Circa 45p this time last year and production on par or better

    Iofina produced a total of 124.6 metric tonnes ("MT") of crystalline iodine in Q1 2016 from its five IOsorb(R) plants. This compares to 127.9MT of crystalline iodine produced from six plants in Q1 2015 of which over 5.5MT was produced at the now closed IOsorb(R) IO#1 plant. The net iodine production in Q1 from the Company's Oklahoma operations increased year on year. The Board reaffirms its production target of 250-270MT of crystalline iodine in H1 2016
     
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  5. Makaira88

    Makaira88 Life's a beach ...

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    I put a cheeky bid in @ 9.25p and it looks as if it has just been filled, so joining you @squire007 for a price target of 45p ... soon please lol
     
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  6. Squire007

    Squire007 Demi God of BlueShare

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    I did expect a big hike on the back of that as it did cover a lot of factors that some had been clamouring to get to the exit based on suspicion rather than reading he prior news.

    My first thought was 'oh nothing about FD and cash balance/revenue etc'. Then I thought thanks heavens for that as it may have created too much volatility in one hit if they say FD lined up to be announced soon, cash fine and steady etc.

    Keep so eggs in the basket so to speak for a further announcement which is justifiable if the audit is not complete etc OR not needed as they have already said costs down and business robust.

    They have hinted at debt so what they if they sort that too. I certainly wouldn't have wanted good news on every factor in just one hit. The SP would have been all over the place far in excess of what we have seen so far today.

    Imo Let it all settle down, let some time pass, let the SP find it's feet, profit takers etc and then we can move on from there if the news is right.

    Thankfully the water permit news is forecast at the end of Q2 not within a week or two etc.
     
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  7. Squire007

    Squire007 Demi God of BlueShare

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    Several more good news items coming, just got to wait ... :)
     
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  8. Squire007

    Squire007 Demi God of BlueShare

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    Well bought Mak, short-term target low 20's ........... got to keep the itchy finger off that button ..:oops::rolleyes:;)
     
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    Makaira88: 5 Points (Thanks to you, Squire!) Apr 12, 2016
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  9. Squire007

    Squire007 Demi God of BlueShare

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    Doing great again today, just hope it gets back to real value ... 40p plus ...Need to stop watching ffs! :D

    Time .... goes slow ... lol
     
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  10. Squire007

    Squire007 Demi God of BlueShare

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    From outside (info)So here is my short verison on what I considered to be news yesterday.

    The Board is pleased to report that Iofina and its partners have been working cooperatively to ensure that the Company's IOsorb(R) plants, at a minimum, maintain current levels of brine processing and ideally expand volumes to some of our plants. These plans can vary per IOsorb(R) plant, but generally entail being less associated with a particular Salt Water Disposal injection well ("SWD"), and more so being tied into the producer's main brine pipeline network. The tie in work is anticipated to commence shortly at two of the Company's IOsorb(R) plants and should require minimal capital expenditure.

    That tells me it's not only viable but relatively cheap to do. It also tells me through knowledge of the sites that both oil companies have approved the new plans. So it's reasonable to suspect the oil companies would agree to the same at all sites.

    Picking on one line

    "The tie in work is anticipated to commence shortly at two of the Company's IOsorb(R) plants"

    There was various contact with IOF and that interview and I read yesterday in one of the many media comments that it was expected within 30 days.

    There is no indication they need extra funds to do that and it might be why they are starting with just 2 to preserve cash.

    I have no doubt they will target the highest feasible ppm sources in that strategy as listed in previous news.
     
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  11. Steamy

    Steamy Co-Founder of BlueShare Staff Member Moderator

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  12. 1MadMarky

    1MadMarky Member

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    Hello Squire,

    The move by the company to disassociate the plants from individual SWDs is good news. If they can selectively pipe additional brine to the plants even better. A mobile pod will cost around a half million dollars, but will add up to 10,000 bpd processing capacity. The current plant perform best at 20,000 bpd. So expansion should be relatively cheap and incremental.
    That was the good news.
    The bad news is that IOF are currently unprofitable. The improvements to brine supply may be enough to push us into profitability but until the price of iodine goes up, IMVHO the sp will not do much. However if the current chilean supply should faulter.... Then IOF should do very well.
    Very much a case of wait and see. Hopefully the bond roll over won't be too painful.
    Mark

     
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    squire007: 5 Points (Hi, welcome ...I am not alone ... lol) Apr 17, 2016
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  13. Squire007

    Squire007 Demi God of BlueShare

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    I agree, it has taken them some time to find that balance. They have had some bad luck too ....!
    But I cannot see it going backwards in general from here, not only is production on course but trading products is growing, New FD would give a boost, water permit, nothing but a gain if it comes :)
    Iodine price to move up slowly ????? Bond is 2017 ...time yet
    'What could possibly go wrong now ....Lol ...

    Ps.... Welcome to Blueshare, big on Miners & Oilers here .. GL
     
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  14. 1MadMarky

    1MadMarky Member

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    Yes... What could go wrong?
    Pretty much everything has gone wrong up until now.
    1) bonds instead of dilution - at this point wrong decision, but in time maybe not.
    2) plants in the wrong places - maybe mitigated by plugging into the mains instead of the SWDs
    3) strong dollar weak peso - maybe the start of a tail wind for us
    4) SQM deciding to do a Saudi Arabia special and take out the competition - low oil prices cannot last much longer, it's doing Saudi too much damage. As oil prices rise so will SQM's costs
    5) earthquakes - fingers crossed this issue is receding

    So, as I've sai,, it's a case of wait and see
     
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  15. Makaira88

    Makaira88 Life's a beach ...

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    I see we have a SIZZLE in IOF today, 14.25p up 11% :):cool:
     
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  16. Makaira88

    Makaira88 Life's a beach ...

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    ... followed by KERCHING!, THUNDER! and BOOM!! ... now up 33% @ 17p :)

    Thanks again @squire007 !!
     
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  17. Squire007

    Squire007 Demi God of BlueShare

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    No worries .... lets enjoy the ride back to 40p land ...;)
     
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  18. HAPPYHOLDER

    HAPPYHOLDER 2016 YEAR OF THE HOUSE / sleeping bag & doorstep

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    Well done guys I used my IOF vouchers to buy MTR so although sad to have bailed I think I will see my cash back in the future !!!

    ATB HH
     
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  19. Squire007

    Squire007 Demi God of BlueShare

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    It may get a bit more bouncy here but long way to get back to proper sp ..
    Another bit of news and we march on .... C'mon nearly half way there ..:D
     
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  20. Squire007

    Squire007 Demi God of BlueShare

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    From Bobsworth .... fair review, in my opinion....


    Iofina Summary

    Key Objectives

    • To lower their Opex Costs.
    • Optimise Iodine Production via plant optimisation & brine supply.
    • Increase Iodine production & grow its Id derivatives business.
    • To win their appeal on the DNRC non-granting of water rights.
    • Consolidate their operations to one site.
    • Conserve cash pile & renegotiate the convertible bonds.
    • Halt all expansion & survive the iodine commodity price crash.

    Achievements to date

    • Reduced Opex costs via staff cuts, power generators, closure of IOF#1.
    • Plants optimised & brine supply interruptions significantly reduced.
    • Significantly reduced Capex spending.
    • Rolling out 2 shift working in their iodine derivatives Divisions.
    • On track to hit their H1 iodine production targets.
    • Kept their Iodine derivatives division fully supplied with in house raw iodine.

    Still to do list

    • Manage their $20m convertible bonds to a favourable outcome
    • While focusing on costs, connect 2 plants to the mine brine pipeline.
    • Relocate IOF~1 to an existing fixed plant site with excess brine supply.
    • Win the water rights appeal.
    • Update the market on their cash position and issue a forward plan.
    • Convince the market they have enough cash to see them through to profits.
    • Then come up with a forward 12 month plan with timelines.

    Positives/Strengths

    • IOF will soon be able to low Opex expand by linking satellite pods to fix site plants
    • IOF still able to grow their iodine derivative business via reliable in house supply.
    • Known Timeline for the outcome of their water rights appeal due in Q2.
    • $ dollar has weakened against peso & boosted Iodine commodity price.
    • Price of Iodine now finally bottomed out and stabilised.
    • World demand for iodine continues to increase.
    • Chilean miners oversupply halted due to their now loss making production.
    • Chilean iodine production reduced by water shortages, legal fines/constraint orders.
    • SQM now legally being called to account for their malpractices.
    • Iodine market now expected to move from oversupply to undersupply status in 2017.
    • Bull mine & RB Energy inventory stocks now depleted following their liquidation.
    • Japanese production set to slowly decline due environmental damage to their islands.

    Negatives/Weaknesses

    • Despite all its self-inflicted problems SQM still has control over iodine prices.
    • Iofina now has limited cash reserves to expand and grow quickly.
    • Market still to be convinced that IOF has enough cash to see them through to profits.
    • Uncertainty over the $20m convertible bonds and water rights continues.

    Conclusion:

    Thanks to some very prudent and focused management IOF is now beginning to look like it has finally turned its raw iodine business around and is now set fair to not only survive this severe iodine commodity price crash but has scope to increase its production further from its existing plant sites once the price and demand for iodine starts to upturn.

    This explains why the derampers have now started to close their short positions and gone long.

    The 2015 full year results next month should finally confirm if Iofina is set fair for a continued recovery.
     
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