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(PSN) Persimmon share chat

Discussion in 'General Share Chat' started by TupacAmaru, Nov 5, 2015.

  1. TupacAmaru

    TupacAmaru Co-Founder of BlueShare Staff Member Moderator

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    (PSN) Persimmon share chat
     
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  2. Inspiration

    Inspiration Moderator Moderator

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    Now might be the right time to sell Persimmon shares, said the Sunday Times' Inside the City column, with a trading update due on Thursday. Investors in the house builder have seen the price triple in the last three years and received £800m in dividends. Persimmon was one of three residential builders to figure in the top ten FTSE 100 price risers over the year, and one of four sector-mates in the blue chip index, which is unprecedented and hints at a bubble.

    Persimmon snapped up land shrewdly in previous years, which has allowed it to make hay as the market heated up. But there are increasing suggestions that the company is on the verge of tougher times, with the loan-to-income ratio in London a vertiginous 3.25, well above the 2.9 peak in pre-crisis 2007.

    New regulations clamping down on mortgages could soon be joined by further tightening as policymakers wince at lending risks. Building costs are meanwhile rising too. While a crash seems unlikely, as the UK remains in need of many more homes, Persimmon's p/e ratio of around 14 could seem unwieldy if market conditions turn against the sector.
     
  3. Richie

    Richie Demi God of BlueShare

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    My other £5k CFD purchase today (along with Next) - This was in view of the 6% drop so far this year despite a very solid update on 7th jan. Looking for £20 within the next 2/3 weeks
     
  4. Richie

    Richie Demi God of BlueShare

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    bought in this morning 125 shares at £15.83 .
     
  5. Inspiration

    Inspiration Moderator Moderator

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    Personally I'm not confident about house builders at the moment. If interest rates rise, it will kill the property market, just as it did in 1989. We had years of negative equity, it was a disaster.

    The UK imports most of its raw materials and food produce, so if the pound falls and the cost of imports increases, interest rates might need to rise. Mark Carney tried to sound calm today and has promised to inject money to protect our economy, but there will be instability for a while.

    Here's what he said back in January about interest rates rising if we have Brexit in this report by Robert Peston.
    http://www.itv.com/news/2016-01-26/carney-warns-brexit-could-lead-to-interest-rate-rise/

    Here's what he said today
    http://www.itv.com/news/2016-06-24/mark-carney-expect-market-and-economic-volatility-after-brexit/
     
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2016
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  6. Richie

    Richie Demi God of BlueShare

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    Good points @Inspiration. I am just reading the Sunday times and they are talking about a cut in interest rates in August to stimulate the economy, in contradiction.

    Also for foreign investors, particularly those that have dollars, house prices suddenly got 8% cheaper on Friday.

    I think it goes to show that no one knows for sure how this sector will play out over the coming months, but at least I have taken my initial stake at 25% discount to the recent price. In addition they are part way through returning 900p/ share over 9 years, so I'll get 110p/ share div each July from next year. A yield of just under 7% per year based on my buy price.

    I'll slowly add over the upcoming months, so not too worried if they carry on going down for a bit.
     
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  7. Inspiration

    Inspiration Moderator Moderator

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    Hi @Richie, I agree that there has also been speculation that the Governor of the Bank of England might cut interest rates later in the summer IF his methods to stimulate the economy aren't effective. At the moment, the pound has fallen in value, which will affect imports, although it's not as low as it has been in recent years. The article, which I posted above, indicates that Carney thought that interest rates might rise if we had Brexit. It's now happened, of course, and apart from savers, most people don't want to see rates rise.

    The most important challenge is to restore confidence. George Osbourne has been an excellent Chancellor - no-one knows who the next PM will choose as his Chancellor and how effective they will be.

    There is a lot of uncertainty, e.g. what will happen about the proposed merger between the London and German stock exchanges:
    https://www.theguardian.com/busines...e-deutsche-borse-merger-brexit-vote-uk-german
     
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2016
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  8. Richie

    Richie Demi God of BlueShare

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    You could well be right. ive hedged my portfolio by spreadbet shorting the ftse 100 this morning at 6100. If the index dives ill use the proceeds to top up here each month. Interestingly all my resource shares seem to be going up so not worried at all in any case
     
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  9. Inspiration

    Inspiration Moderator Moderator

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    Richie likes this.
  10. Inspiration

    Inspiration Moderator Moderator

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    Richie likes this.
  11. Inspiration

    Inspiration Moderator Moderator

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    Am looking around for a few shares with good dividend yields, so maybe I'll buy in here. It's ex div at the moment, so I won't benefit from this year's divi, but worth considering over the summer.

    Current sp £12.89 - back to 2006 levels, before the 2008 crash.

    Whilst I have done very well with AIM shares, it would be good to have a few more regular dividend payers, so that I'm not watching my investments constantly!
     
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2016
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  12. Richie

    Richie Demi God of BlueShare

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    Have a read of yesterday's update. They seem fairly upbeat and committed to the capital returns. I'll buy more when I next get funds.

    And you'll be in 15% below me!

    I have rdsb, rio, now LLOY and PSN as a start of reliable divvy payers. My plan is to take profits from aim and top up these and others over time. I also like matchtec (mtec) a recruitment company that's local to me. They are down 50% for no reason and are paying 7.5% dividend. Haven't bought them yet but will do over the summer.
     
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  13. Inspiration

    Inspiration Moderator Moderator

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    I could kick myself for not buying Fresnillo a while back when they were cheap and paying good divi's!
     
  14. Starburst

    Starburst A Legendary Member

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    Legal & General (LGEN) have fallen sharply after referndum, divi now nearly 8% and strong upbeat statements from the company. Would be interested to hear any views on this.
     
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  15. Inspiration

    Inspiration Moderator Moderator

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    Standard Life are back to where they were in 2012. Good divi payers, but the sp hit an unrealistic high imho, because there was a capital return, which people didn't understand. L&G are showing the same pattern.

    It depends what overall plan you've got for your portfolio. I don't know about L&G specifically. Divi's are a more relaxing way to invest, if you don't have time to follow the share price of a company. I use limit orders a lot, which saves me watching the price the whole time and also helps to take the emotion out of trading, as it's easy to get caught out when the herd chase the price up.
     
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  16. Groucho

    Groucho Member

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    21 August 2018

    PERSIMMON PLC


    HALF YEAR RESULTS FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 30 JUNE 2018


    Persimmon plc today announces half year results for the six months ended 30 June 2018.


    Highlights

    ·

    Profit before tax increased 13% to £516.3m (2017: £457.4m)

    ·

    New home sales increased 4% to 8,072 (2017: 7,794) - an additional 278 new homes delivered

    ·

    New home average selling price of £215,813 up 1% (2017: £213,262)

    ·

    Total Group revenue up 5% to £1.84bn (2017: £1.75bn)

    ·

    Underlying new housing operating margin* increased by 210 basis points to 29.7% (2017: 27.6%)

    ·

    Return on average capital employed** increased by 14% to 53.8% (2017: 47.3%)

    ·

    11,072 plots of new land secured in the period, including 3,212 plots converted from the Group's strategic land bank

    ·

    Net free cash generation*** of £240.4m (2017: £284.5m)

    ·

    £1,154.6m cash held (2017: £1,120.4m), prior to £343.8m capital return paid on 2 July 2018

    ·

    Basic earnings per share increased by 13% to 134.9p (2017: 119.5p)

    ·

    Current forward sales 6% ahead at £2.120bn (2017: £2.005bn)

    ·

    Return of surplus capital of 125 pence per share (£388.5m) paid 29 March 2018 in addition to the scheduled payment of 110 pence per share (£343.8m) paid after the balance sheet date on 2 July 2018

    ·

    Commitment to return surplus capital of at least 235 pence per share to shareholders each year for the next two years ending 2020, and 110 pence per share in 2021


    * stated before goodwill impairment

    ** 12 month rolling average stated before goodwill impairment

    *** net free cash generation stated before Capital Return Plan payments


    Jeff Fairburn, Group Chief Executive, said: "These strong results reflect the continued successful delivery of the Group's long term strategy and our commitment to meeting customer demand in each of our 30 regional markets across the UK.


    We have continued to experience good levels of customer interest in our housing development sites as we trade through the quieter summer season. Customers are continuing to benefit from a competitive mortgage market and confidence remains resilient based on healthy employment trends and low interest rates. Our forward sales are 6% ahead of last year at £2.12bn which places the Group in a strong position for the second half of the year.


    The Group continues to invest in the business to improve operational capacity. The increased utilisation of the Group's standard house types and the greater use of the Group's offsite manufacturing capability will support the Group's aim to deliver further increases in new home volumes.


    The Group has a robust platform to continue to deliver successful outcomes based on its high quality land bank, strong forward sales, excellent financial position, and experienced management team. We believe we are well positioned to deliver further high quality, sustainable growth."

    Persimmon Plc - Half Year Results https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/rns/announcement/9887c52a-7087-4754-ab40-a2640a6c723e
     
  17. Groucho

    Groucho Member

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    627D2997-2671-4890-9511-DA93F7997D64.jpeg
    Daily Mail 24/10/18
     

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