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Recovery Shares and users tips

Discussion in 'Recovery Shares a tips' started by Steamy, Feb 1, 2017.

  1. Steamy

    Steamy Co-Founder of BlueShare Staff Member Moderator

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    Posts about shares you feel are a recovery play, giving the reasoning and share tips with others and remember to back it up with reasoning.

    Nothing in here should be taken as investment advice.
     
    Inspiration, shenderson, cjb and 7 others like this.
  2. Steamy

    Steamy Co-Founder of BlueShare Staff Member Moderator

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    My tip is Ashtead PLC ticker AHT 1,624.25 is todays price, the years low was 749.00 - and the years high stands at 1,679.00

    They are an equipment and power rental company known as A plant in the UK, 85% of there business is in the USA and with the USA infrastructure boom under trump I believe they earnings will go through the roof.

    Screen Shot 2017-02-01 at 23.30.45.png Screen Shot 2017-02-01 at 23.30.53.png
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2017
  3. caseyjones64

    caseyjones64 A Legendary Member

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    Great initiative, Steamy. Most of the shares I've found have come from tips from colleagues on Blueshare. The best have been ARS (thanks to you for this one), CPX and SXX, where I'm up lots. Some - MTR, WRES in particular - are bubbling under, but I'm hopeful they'll turn out well. Wish I'd never heard about XTR! Thankfully, I didn't put much in there.

    Anyway, here's one some of you will be aware of, but as there are only 5 pages on Blueshare on it, I'm guessing not most. It's Premier African Resources (PREM).

    PREM was up 13% today and is up nearly 100% since last week so, on the face of it the opportunity to bag has already gone. But PREM hit a 52-week low last week and was nearly 3 times higher than today's close last April.

    So what's good about PREM today? Well DYOR, of course, but here are a few reasons why it might be a good time to buy:

    PREM is a good lithium (lithium batteries, Tesla cars, etc) and tantalum (capacitors, phones, computers) play. Lithium price has shot up, tripling in the last year, due to doubts about supply and recognition of the potentially huge future demand. PREM announced great assay results from its Zulu project in Zimbabwe this morning (hence today's rise - see the PREM page for the RNS) and will I think release a maiden resource report later this month. If today's numbers are borne out with further assay results that should boost the SP further. See these numbers from a poster on LSE called Xulu (appropriately), which paint a very promising picture.

    "Zulu Lithium is far above average grades. Galaxy’s Mt Cattlin only has 1.04% Li20 [Lithium Oxide] and Tantalum 149ppm - MCap of $830m. Pilbara has 1.26% Li20 and 138ppm Tantalum MCap $581m. BGS has 1.48% Li20, resource statement only, 1/3rd of our size - MCap $42m. We’re rocking up with average grades of 1.56% - 1.85% and up to 2.67%! And tantalum grades up to 700ppm!

    So what’s the anticipated resource target? From RNS 21st July: 4 years ago, a tiny portion of the drilling reckoned 1.4m T at 1.4%. This was only on the assumed area of 460m at 50m depth. Since then we have shown it extends over 3.5km and down to 200m depth. 7 times length extension, and 4 times depth extension. And higher grades. If it does indeed extend across this strike length and at these grades as the drill assays are currently proving, then from extrapolation we are looking at 39mt at say 1.7% average is 663k T Li20. This is triple BGS’s resource. The standard conversion to LCE is 2.473 - gives a resource of 1.64mT LCE. This is why George [George Roach, PREM's CEO] now describes it as a ‘world-class deposit’. Because it really is. With exceptional high Tantalum grades to offset production costs."

    (But DYOR, as I don't know Xulu from Adam and wouldn't buy on the back of a set of bulletin board numbers. Many of us remember Julian de Bosdari's compelling Quindell analyses, don't we?)

    Tungsten. PREM has a tungsten mine - known as RHA - also in Zimbabwe. Rather unlike lithium, tungsten has been expected to spike for a year or two but hasn't at all, as WRES holders will know. PREM had an RNS on its RHA tungsten mine on Monday (hence Monday's rise - again, see the PREM page for the RNS), giving a very positive assessment of short- to medium-term profits expected from RHA.

    Potash
    . PREM has a stake in Circum, which wholly-owns an Ethiopian potash project - see this article, which gave a rating from Shore Capital back in October of 1.82p per PREM share just for the 2% stake it holds in Circum. I think that's probably a bit lower now, due to dilution from PREM placings since, but probably still over 1p per PREM share, if Shore's numbers are sound.

    http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk...ts-stake-in-circum-minerals-alone-167653.html

    Like MTR in Thailand and ARS in Indonesia, mining licences are in play here. Circum is waiting (has been for many months) for mining licences from the Ethiopian government. If/when they're granted, PREM are likely to sell their Circum stake for a tidy sum. But the licences are needed, of course.

    Funding. PREM has relied for funding on a loan note from Darwin Capital, who have held many PREM warrants as a consequence. Monday's announcement confirmed PREM had raised £1 million through a new placing, so wouldn't need to draw on outstanding Darwin notes.

    There's some indication Darwin have sold into the rise - Darwin converted its notes - see another RNS of yesterday - for PREM shares at 0.20p. PREM is at 0.425p now. Possibly, Darwin selling (if indeed they have) has put a short-term brake on the PREM SP, given the strength of the RNSs this week. But also see Inspiration's warning on the PREM page of the risk of profit-taking on the back of this week's rises. But the RNS's look very good to me.

    GLA if you get involved but DYOR, of course.

    Casey
     
    Latest Given Reputation Points:
    Steamy: 5 Points (Excellent post, one of the best I have seen) Feb 1, 2017
    Larry: 5 Points (I agree with Steamy, great post Casey) Feb 1, 2017
  4. Larry

    Larry Demi God of BlueShare

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    My tip for your watch list is QFI nearing the end of it's sea trials with Maersk (March ish) lots of detail on BS thread and also these sites:http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:QFI.L&it=le&display=discussion
    http://quadriseshareholders.freeforums.org/reg_success.php and of course it's own web site :http://www.quadrisefuels.com/
    Price 12.06p just broken out of 3 month trading channel. When and if contracts signed with Maersk massive upside in world shipping and with interest from Saudi and elsewhere for power generation fuels and other applications. I have held and added since early 2014 and am raising further funds ready for opportunity in/before March 2017. This is not a recommendation and is just what I am personally doing, what I do recommend is to do your own research and watch. GLA;)
     
    shenderson likes this.
  5. Larry

    Larry Demi God of BlueShare

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    Sounds great Casey, what are your thoughts on stability in Zimbabwe?
     
  6. Reacher

    Reacher Demi God of BlueShare

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    Thanks Steamy, once again providing a great service to our membership.

    I think many resources stocks are potential rebounds this year, including oil and mining exploration, so huge high hopes for UKOG, 88e, MTR, RGM, and a few others that many of us know from 2016, which did not achieve the potential we initially thought would happen last year.

    Short of time at the moment, but will add to this thread asap, once I have time to collate the information on my plays that provide transparency to their potential value.

    Great initiative !!
     
  7. SophieR

    SophieR Member

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    After the recent price drop to 300p, I go for the old fashion BT. I think it is a good recovery play that pays a decent dividend. Woodford holds 1.42% of his portfolio in BT (data from January portfolio update).

    SR
     
  8. westa2

    westa2 A Legendary Member

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  9. Kernow

    Kernow Active Member

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    CTAG. Probably pretty well known to most. Just attended CES in Miami and it was thought that news was imminent. No news. The new Onitor Track will be displayed and hopefully demonstrated at Munich's ISPO. The technology is compelling and is in a space of its own - NOT to be confused with Fitbit. Onitor uses medical grade ECG.
    ---------
    Onitor™ Track is the first truly intelligent heart rate activity monitor. Onitor™ Track uses advanced technology to assist you reach your weight loss goals – in a way that integrates seamlessly into your daily life.

    Wear the Track discreetly on your wrist, then (when it is time to work out) pop the device out of the strap and clip it into the Heart Rate Clip. It then turns into an ECG heart rate monitor which offers a highly-accurate assessment of heart rate and energy expenditure. This, then helps you produce your own personal weight loss program.

    The wearable device works in conjunction with the Onitor health and fitness smartphone app. By providing a very accurate analysis of a user’s fitness level and energy expenditure, Onitor can offer the user a truly bespoke, hyper-personalised fitness and nutritional program.
    ---------

    Many Shareholders are convinced the company is all set for a takeover as has so many of CEO Amit Ben Haim's previous start ups which have been successfully sold at huge premiums in the past. Shareprice walked down to a ridiculous level @5p. If positive news breaks as a result of the Munich Trade Show there are riches to be made......perhaps
     
  10. MedicInvestor

    MedicInvestor Member

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    shenderson and Makaira88 like this.
  11. Kernow

    Kernow Active Member

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    For as long as Mugabe and after him his cronies are still involved with the country I fear the risk is to much for me. Shame because it looks a good thing tbh.
     
    Larry likes this.
  12. caseyjones64

    caseyjones64 A Legendary Member

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    Hi Larry, sovereign risk is clearly a factor to weigh up. In total, PREM has interests in projects across six countries (see here for more: http://www.premierafricanminerals.com/), so to an extent that's managed, but clearly there's a Mugabe factor to keep in mind.
     
    Inspiration, Makaira88, Larry and 2 others like this.
  13. Graham Hacker

    Graham Hacker Moderator Moderator

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    Comments/Thoughts on my AIM experience (6 years)

    1. Startups - Many sp's trade up/down without any relationship to their risk/market opportunity. Trade these by all means but keep taking profits and mentally set a loss level and sell (unless overwhelming reasons not to) - fear/greed are your biggest enemy to success - a doomed strategy!
    2. Resource companies rarely meet initial timelines to commercialisation.
    3. Technical innovation companies frequently suffer delays to commercialisation
    4. Few AIM companies produce clear RNS's, with appropriate comparisons - A new updated standard needs establishing, more aligned to professional management presentation - examples of current short comings:
    a) The physical RNS presentation is often poor (aligned to a bygone era!)
    b) RNS Content is often inconsistent and cherry picked, sometimes
    comparing apples with pears!
    c) Numbers are always best presented in cols, with relevant variances -
    never as rambling text. The same applies to timelines where changes
    occur.
    d) Appropriate company KPI's should need to be established and used
    e) The expression "Market expectations" should be banned unless qualified
    by actual numbers. (WTG kindly added values to their recent statement)
    f) Plain English should always be be used.
    5. Greed is often shown with over generous share options. Shareholder votes should be sought.
    6. Never invest in a rush, you'll lose more in the long run.

    What has this taught me?
    1. Always top slice when on a winner
    2. Control your emotions - don't dive in/out - get used to seeing "1" get away!
    3. On new product and resource companies always assume it will take significantly longer and cost significantly more. If it's a "go" on that basis invest, but if the figures are not clear, expect a very bumpy ride

    4. In general CEO's are over optimistic on the company's ability to deliver on the opportunity.

    5. Always check the credentials of the accountant - is he/she qualified with relevant experience and seems to have his/her head above the parapet (no negative history with CEO - QPP problem!)

    6. Non exec directors are increasingly more relevant, and companies without substance and quality here are a greater risk.

    Patience, patience, patience, never invest in a rush
     
    Latest Given Reputation Points:
    caseyjones64: 5 Points (Great advice, Graham) Feb 2, 2017
    RollinHand: 5 Points Feb 2, 2017
    taffy21: 5 Points (Couldn't agree more on all points. Quality of BOD very important to me. Learnt the hard way.) Feb 2, 2017
  14. tu123

    tu123 Demi God of BlueShare

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    Not just brexit - it was also impacted by the cost of IT delays on the London congestion charge and a slowdown in its IT services and recruitment divisions. It's going to be a difficult year or so as their clients cut back on discretionary spending and the proposed restructuring is likely to involve a bunch of exceptional costs.

    However, if they can maintain the dividend and sell off the non-core assets at favourable valuations to reduce net debt - then I agree it's a good recovery play.
     
  15. Richie

    Richie Demi God of BlueShare

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    Ive got a few to go with. I am keen limit aim stocks to a sensible amount so have put a proportion of my portfolio into these :

    Ive got Gattaca - GATC - Bought a couple of weeks back. They are a big recruitment company based in hampshire (just over the road from the old quindell office, but dont let that cloud any judgement!) They have a market cap of just £90m, pay an 8% yield. Results out today read ok and theyve just bought a Resourcing Solutions Ltd that could put £2m (current profit) to £5m (if they strip costs) to their bottom line as of now. Share price is 45% below year high mainly on brexit worries.

    Capita - bought this week - see post above

    IG Group (IGG) - Spreadbetting firm - i bought just before xmas- Down 40% this year on worries that regulation may increase - Paying a 6% dividend

    Inmarsat - ISAT - Another one down 50% but paying 6% and on PE of 12 - so not expensive - debt is fairly high but slowly reducing

    The AA - AA. - Saddled with a lot of debt but again this is slowly reducing - 30% down from year high and paying 4%
     
  16. Richie

    Richie Demi God of BlueShare

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    And one more:

    The retailer Next NXT. Again down 50% this year on cost pressure concerns (living wage & low £ making imported stock cost more) Solid company though, generating loads of free cash and a 4.5% yield
     
  17. westa2

    westa2 A Legendary Member

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    Makaira88 likes this.
  18. Watchman

    Watchman Demi God of BlueShare

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    TP Group (TPG.L) defence and energy. In full recovery after being hit by oil market slump, a big flip. Moved from tier 1 to tier 2, scaled back R&D, going for sales and growth. Possible gap up on announcement of (slow) but secure GOV UK orders. I see it as fairly safe for yielding 30% ROI within 12-18mo, dividend signalled following stability. Bought at 6.18p with 6% spread. Momentum has waned so in waiting for news on orders, means possibility of obtaining stock at a lower price, maybe below 6p.

    "TP Group has transitioned its structure to four capability-based divisions: TPG Maritime (54% of FY15 sales), Engineering (35%), Design & Technology (4%) and Managed Solutions (7%), primarily for the defence and energy markets. These provide the opportunity to grow revenues with existing blue-chip customers and through access to adjacencies in both the UK and export markets, including selective acquisitions."
    (Ref: Edison Research 21/12/16)

    http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/tp-group835550/preview/
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2017
    Makaira88 and Larry like this.
  19. hamila01

    hamila01 A Legendary Member

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    Hi All,

    Not a recovery play but certainly a tip.

    Immupharma (IMM) is a biotech firm with a phase III trial drug (Lupozor) which completed a 200 patient recruitment process in December. 2 of those patients have now completed the 12 month trial and over 80% of the patients have been treated for over 3 months.

    So far no side effects have been reported and this was also reflected in the phase IIb trial. This trial showed the best results for any Lupus treatment ever. Top level results will be known in Q1 2018.

    And the drug platform has possible applications with other related autoimmune diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis. Lupozor would be able to skip some of the initial trials. The issue here is that while the company is fully funded for the Lupozor trial it would need to raise funds in order to progress other possible uses of the P140 compound.

    Only one drug has got to market in the last 5 years - Benlysta, a drug that Glaxosmithkline paid $3.6bn for 50% and which has failed to impress in medical terms and struggled to get through drug trials along with a $35000 cost per patient per year.

    With approx. 1.5m sufferers in easily accessible and affluent markets, Lupozor only needs to target 50,000 patients at $20,000 per patient to hit blockbuster drug sales of $1bn per year. Market analysts believe the drug could hit $3-4bn in sales.

    It is extremely rare for a minnow to get a drug to market without being taken over or signing up for a licensing or distribution deal. IMM has a significant II shareholder base who seem more interested in long term gains and significant director holdings with the chief science officer owning 20% of the company.

    It is currently valued at £65m. Another firm targeting Lupus, Delinia, has been bought with a $300m initial payment recently. Their drug has not even started it's first trial yet.

    Based on a comparison, IMM should probably be priced in the region of £1.71-2.00 prior to phase III results. At the moment it's priced at 54p. Once the Lupozor is derisked then large pharma will potentially pay a large price to gain control of it. And if the P140 peptide is effective on other serious conditions then we really are talking of a deal that involves figures as long as telephone numbers.....

    Please DYOR but this is about as low a risk for a biotech on the AIM market.
     
    Reacher and Watchman like this.
  20. Plebleens

    Plebleens Member

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    I'm all over Premier Oil as you may read from my lonely posts. Having averaged down and averaged up, the share price broke long term resistance at around 80p after Jan 12th trading update and we are now awaiting the long awaited update on the North Seas most complicated refinancing deals ever. Wednesdays RNS says we a few days days from a full announcement. All the major bond holders have agreed, just the convertible bond holders to sort out who are minor players but proving more difficult to please. According to sources in order to get an extension to 2023 PMO must pay an extra 2% interest and accept a lower conversion price. PMO arguing for a 200+ strike price and they are looking for something more incentivised nearer current share price value. The last trading update also stated that any refinancing would not be materially dilutive for shareholders. This refinancing has held this company back for the last 6 months despite the oil price rally on the back of OPEC cuts. Solan has problems and will need to be redrilled next year when the weather improves but the new catcher project is due Q4 this year and is coming in under budget and will increase total production by 25kbd and at currrnt prices help pay down debt. Some degree of hedging is in place and their Pakistan assets are close to being sold. All of which will boost the balance sheet. Other similar North Sea producers such as Tullow and enquest have gone through refinancing and their share prices have had decent upsides. The debt is the problem and once solved will allow this share to flourish. Hopefully will bring back the institutional investors once solved and Above1.45 and we go back into the ftse 250. All to play for and sentiment is back. The announcement in the next few days holds the key. Good Luck and dyor.
     
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