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(SXX) Sirius Minerals Share Chat

Discussion in 'General Share Chat (SXX)' started by mart101, Jul 30, 2015.

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  1. hocks

    hocks Beer Connoisseur

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    I have a few shares in Sirius and will probably buy more just before the planning permission meeting.
    The North York moors national park have to decide if they want a second large mine in the park.
    I live within a few miles so keep an eye on developments.
    Looks like the local councils and most councillors are for the development. Nobody knows if the national park will recommend the planning application but the committee is made up from local councillors so could pass approval anyway.
    Share price should at least double if it gets permission. If approved and built will be ftse100 revenue.
    Very much a 50/50 gamble at this stage.
    Anyone else invested ?
     
    Latest Given Reputation Points:
    Bristol87: 5 Points Jun 30, 2015
    seren25: 5 Points (Good to have a local with eyes on the situation. Thanks for keeping us informed) Mar 22, 2016
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  2. warmrain

    warmrain Demi God of BlueShare

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    I think this can now be said to have better prospects than a 50/50 gamble. I have been following this share/company for quite a while and the story/history is an interesting one and which reflects the evil forces of big business, dirty tricks, somewhat blinkered "environmentalists" and bigoted "jobs worth" officials in public service....

    For those new to this share, the company has, it is said, probably the biggest polyhalite (natural fertiliser) resource in Western Europe and a fertiliser which is proven in a number of trials to be very effective for farming uses. It has already been able to "forward sell" on a provisional basis most of its projected mine output for the first years of production -- contingent on the mine being built. The planning permission for the (all but invisible) underground mine to be built on the edge of the National Park in an area that has known mining for generations including most recently mining for alum along the coast (and where the Park itself promotes its mining history as one of its tourist attractions) has been the contentious issue in this project.

    The previous attempt to submit a planning application for the mine was scuppered by an adverse report from AMEC who were engaged by the Park Planning Dept as advisors. It is quite instructive to note that AMEC had and has huge and lucrative contruction contracts with the large potash cartels of North America. If allowed to mine, Sirius would be producing fertiliser of equivalent nutrient value for very roughly less than half the costs incurred by the N American cartels.

    The reformulated planning application submitted this year by Sirius has already been approved by one of the two Planning Committees whose approval it needs, the outstanding one being from the N York Moors Park Planning Ctte. This meeting is scheduled for 30 June 2015 and the Planning Officer's report to the Planning Committee pre meeting is expected to contain an "Open" recommendation which means it is left entirely up to the Committee to decide whereas I believe the previous (draft) report last year was likely to have argued for a refusal by Committee. Sirius have indicated that in the event the application is refused by the NYMoors committee they would (as they are entitled to) put in an appeal to the Secretary of State.

    Make no mistake though, the actual building of a mine (if approved) will take 3 years and positive cash flow will not take place till then but the prospects ... and incidentally the share price ... are going up.

    WR
     
    Latest Given Reputation Points:
    Bristol87: 5 Points Jun 30, 2015
    Powerteam, Mitsol, seren25 and 3 others like this.
  3. Starburst

    Starburst A Legendary Member

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    I have recently bought shares in this company, looks like it could be a great investment. It would appear that the future will be decided by close on 30th June, this makes it attractive rather than other oilers and miners that mostly promise jam tomorrow but never quite get there.
     
    seren25 likes this.
  4. hocks

    hocks Beer Connoisseur

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    Im thinking of investing a few more £k in the week before the planning meeting, after the nymnp report and the AMEC report is published but before the crucial meeting. This is to understand any negative issues published, as the share price would, I assume drop if something significant is raised (like mine water regulatory issues etc). Ive missed the big rise from about 9p a few weeks back to 19p now but Ive had all my spare cash in qpp!
    I would guess other investors may do the same so might be a busy week for the share and my plan may be futile. I don't think it will rise much above 30p if permission is given due to finance requirements to build the mine. It will be a good very long term investment though, the product seems to be excellent.
    Local press and the general tone and noise is certainly a lot better than last years planning fiasco. I lost a lot in last years planning failure, which is why Im more cautious this time.
    Im not keen on the remuneration of the directors however, they seem to have made a lot of money regardless of the outcome.
     
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  5. mart101

    mart101 Demi God of BlueShare

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    Hi @warmrain. Just to say thanks (so far anyway!) for bringing this share to my attention. Just headed into the blue today so fingers crossed for the next few weeks towards the end of June.
     
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  6. Steamy

    Steamy Co-Founder of BlueShare Staff Member Moderator

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    34% up on my invesment in SXX, without BlueShare and this thread I would not have found this company.
     
  7. mart101

    mart101 Demi God of BlueShare

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    Well done you must have got in just before me. I'm up 20% thanks to this forum. I'm looking at another couple of shares brought to my attention on here including Utilitywise.
     
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  8. StarTom

    StarTom Demi God of BlueShare

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    I have someone that is quite close to this company and they are confident that this is about to take off in a very big way. I dare not expose anymore until I have more confirmation and in-depth detail to report back.
     
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  9. hocks

    hocks Beer Connoisseur

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    All the local intelligence is very positive for granting planning permission. Most of the councillors appear to be for it.
    Im still going to wait for the AMEC report and the planning officers report before I commit more funds even if this means missing out on the share price ramp up in the next 3 weeks. If a leak of the amec report comes out then that may persuade me and all hints are that there is nothing in the AMEC report that would stop planning, but Im less willing/able to gamble money at the moment.

    The other question is how much in the short term the share price will increase with planning permission as there is a massive billion pound building programme to be financed. Im guessing a share price of 35p to 40p this year, so if it ramps up to 30p during June the gain with successful planning isn't going to be worth the risk, from my viewpoint.

    Like any mine there is significant build risk with the very, very deep shafts that need to be sunk and the extremely long tunnel from the minehead to the port in teeside.
    I will always have some funds in this because its a fantastic local project for the UK and a great product (Im also a part time farmer). At this share price the long term dividend yield should be considerable once the mine is built. One for my pension regardless of what happens end of June.

    Im interested in others views and any info that can be gleaned.

    Hocks

     
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  10. warmrain

    warmrain Demi God of BlueShare

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    i think that this is going to be built one way or another. Sooner, if planning permission comes through at the end of June, or later if it has to go to appeal. It only requires a simple majority on the planning committee for it to be approved and there is strong support in the local community for the project. Local councillors on the committee with a political nose for re-election will want to be alert to and responsive to the aspirations of their local community. If it has to go to appeal with the Secretary of State, it may be informative to read this interview with the Undersecretary of State for Local Comm & Govt who clearly has Sirius on his radar and whose boss will determine any appeal.
    http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/business/spotlighton/12973613.Building_the_Northern_Powerhouse/
    Draw your own onclusions about the likely direction of travel if it has to go to appeal.

    The main risk is with a further delay in having planning permission granted. The remaining objectors, essentially the N Yorks Moors (preservation) Association and the existing (much smaller) Potash Mine in the National Park at Boulby do not have a right of appeal to the S-of-State if planning permission is granted, but they can seek Judicial Review (an expensive process) if they feel they can pick any holes in the process of decision making itself. I do not think the NYMoors Assn can afford to finance any Judicial Review but the other vested big business interests (Boulby Mine - owned by Israel Chemicals) might if they can find any basis for it. This would delay planning permission for at least 6 -12 months.

    I do not think that finding finance to build the mine will be a problem (despite the very large sums needed) as at least two of the directors including the CExec, from memory, has a background of previously working in the City including Citigroup and Rothschild and the profit margins at production are compelling. [ http://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/people/person.asp?personId=118412594&ticker=SXX:LN ] The 4 main directors also have a fair bit of skin in the game, holding 13.5% between them.

    In time of course, the engineering aspects of building the mine can be subject to unexpected problems and delays due for example to geological issues but the siting of the mine and tunnel has been chosen to specifically minimise likely geological problems.

    So, in summary a mining project with much commitment and high likelihood of progress to completion, operating in a politically stable and safe location unlike many other speculative mining projects around the world! Main risks are possible delays leading to drift in the share price but for those patient, a likely multiple in a few years time.

    WR
     
    Latest Given Reputation Points:
    Ron Clifton: 5 Points (Were we are at! - nicely summarised WR) Jun 23, 2016
  11. mart101

    mart101 Demi God of BlueShare

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    Just bought another small batch at 19.72p. Aware of the risk here but sold a portion of an even riskier share to buy some more of these! Paid 19.67 for the first batch.
     
  12. Huge

    Huge Active Member

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    Do you think this morning is an opportune short attack
     
  13. mart101

    mart101 Demi God of BlueShare

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    I'm not knowledgable enough to answer that but I had decided over the weekend to buy more regardless. I have noticed a few big buys after mine though including £125k and a few £50k's. Just keeping a close watch on it and looks to be on its way back up as I type.
     
  14. Larry

    Larry Demi God of BlueShare

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    This mornings fall seems a bit overdone, first thoughts are traders profit taking. MoneyAM live trades shows many more buys than sells ? Anyone got a heads up on this? L2 ?
     
  15. warmrain

    warmrain Demi God of BlueShare

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    Looking at the Level 2 book during this morning's drop, there were a few large sell orders including, for example, one for 1.25m shares at 20p. However this was quickly taken up completely in 3-4 bites over 5 min so there seems to be a floor around 20p. Quite why anyone would want to put a sell order that size directly on the Book is a bit of a mystery as you would normally feed it through your broker slowly to get a better overall price.

    So whilst it is possible there were some traders taking profits after the recent good rises, it is just possible that a large potential buyer also tried some manipulative action to push the price down to subsequently accumulate, as 30m have now been traded between the lower price of 20-21p since the drop....

    WR
     
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  16. golidyl

    golidyl Active Member

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    Have been in for a good while and just about even.
    Was attracted by the sector and do believe that ultimately planning will be given!
    The geology should be well known as there will have been coal exploration and of course Boulby a very deep mine is not too far distant, so the probability for surprises I think will be very low both for the mine and tunnel.

    Jim
     
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  17. warmrain

    warmrain Demi God of BlueShare

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    Interesting personal view from Jim Glickenhaus (over on LSE) whose long term target for SXX is "150p" based on earnings/share of 30p at production. He hardly ever posts but is a real person and a long term extremely large personal investor in SXX. I have wondered why he bothers to make comment on a BB but I put it down to him being an egalitarian open minded American who is comfortable with social media. I have some respect for his comments.

    WR
     
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  18. Larry

    Larry Demi God of BlueShare

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    2 large buys ( over 1 mil) after hours lol !
     
  19. warmrain

    warmrain Demi God of BlueShare

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    Those were two exactly matched trades, so probably just someone moving their investment into their ISA/SIPP. Nonetheless the volume today was 50m and has been similarly high (30-50m) every day over the last week, compared to an average daily volume of 14m in the previous month.
     
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  20. hocks

    hocks Beer Connoisseur

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    I just asked sophie rose to help check the shorting interest for sirius and it appears there may be some shorting :
    Ill try figure out how to do this myself from sophie's previous advice.

    Hi Hocks

    Currently for SXX:
    fees to borrow: 11.25% - very high indicating high demand to borrow
    Share available: >10,000,000

    There is no trade secrets, you just have to monitor IB site, short tracker, FCA, datalend and Crest (all free data) and Markit (best, but not available free) to build a picture of changes in fees, share availability and short position over time.

    In one of the post in this thread, there is a guide for how to access IB site for fees and availability.

    regards
    SophieR
     
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