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(SXX) Sirius Minerals Share Chat

Discussion in 'General Share Chat (SXX)' started by mart101, Jul 30, 2015.

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  1. Wilko

    Wilko Demi God of BlueShare

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    Possibly not much new here, but a neat summary:

    SXX risk summary table.jpg
     
  2. Groucho

    Groucho Member

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    A327916C-1E7D-445B-B94D-0BD18AE48F6E.jpeg
    Daily Mail 01/11/19
     
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  3. Wilko

    Wilko Demi God of BlueShare

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    I've been reconsidering the situation, especially after the Muntajat distribution deal and it's timing.

    Which for me indicates a strong enough possibility of a funding deal with the Qatari's at a diluting, but reasonable ( depending on where your average starts from ) price that averaging down now could be rewarding.

    I also note a "changing of the guard" last November at the QIA, with new younger management at the helm and a stated shift from having funds under management to a more direct approach and was also drawn by the quote from incoming management:

    https://www.ft.com/content/2bbe7fb4-8c5b-11e9-a24d-b42f641eca37

    "we are opportunistic investors, so if we see an opportunity we go for it"

    My presumption is any "rescue" will be equity and I see a number of things that suggest 6p now might be appropriate rather than 4p. For example average of current ( stable ? ) SP 3p and very approx NAV/sunk value 9p/share and a willing partner in the Qatari's.

    Raising equity rather than debt also reduces the final overall funds needed because of the associated compounded saving of interest ( at high rates ).

    A base case model might be 1:1 placing raising about £400m ie $500m to, on a fair wind, more or less fund the main shaft through the SSG.

    Further Equity would be needed in future ( I think CF will have to accept a fundamental switch from primarily debt funding to equity with some debt at reasonable interest rates ) which one might expect Qatari support in raising when needed.

    The hope would be that if a deal was announced that would be viewed favourably and the SP propelled further forward.

    In my mind in that scenario I've not completely ruled out the possibility that some of any placing is firm and a part is conditional on an open offer to existing shareholders.

    It's not too difficult to see the Qatari's getting a 25% stake ( which ultimately would be diluted by the CB's to something above 20% ) at a comparatively modest ( for them ) price and total cost.

    Any other cost reduction or risk sharing or funding measures CF might come up with, would in my eyes be a bit of a bonus.

    If something of this nature is afoot, in the real world there will be leaks and the SP will react ahead of any announcement depending on the muted price of a deal.

    My circumstances have allowed me to double down ( plus a bit ) @3p bringing my average down to 4.25p.

    I would expect some sort of update before too long, which may even be a little more concrete now than I previously thought and should I hope at least include some information on MTR tunnel progress and SBR setup/launch which I think is generally held likely to be positive for the moment.

    Because of my current belief in a little more substantial better news in the update, the apparent support @ 3p ( which did seem to involve some consistent buying at 3.00 this morning ) and a changed belief that 2p or substantially below 3p may not happen, I have decided to take a punt now.

    Of course any "rescue" could be at a price below 3p or not happen at all.

    DYOR and good luck.

    PS forgot to mention the FTSE250 drop out has now happened so the price depressing effect of that may now be behind us ?
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2019
  4. warmrain

    warmrain Demi God of BlueShare

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    I have received this response to the petition to Govt for Sirius support. However, the petition has also stalled because of the forthcoming general election.

    "
    The Government has responded to the petition you signed – “Provide Sirius minerals with full Loan Guarantee from HM treasury.”.

    Government responded:

    The Government’s interactions with Sirius Minerals are commercially confidential and it is therefore not possible to comment further on the particulars of dealings between Government and Sirius.

    The Government’s interactions with Sirius Minerals are commercially confidential and it is therefore not possible to comment further on the particulars of dealings between Government and Sirius Minerals. However, we wish to assure all interested parties that all requests for Government financial support are assessed in great detail and must meet necessary assistance criteria. When examining any request for financing, the Government has to assess the potential benefits of a project against the need to protect taxpayers’ money.

    Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy

    Click this link to view the response online:

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269824?reveal_response=yes

    The Petitions Committee will take a look at this petition and its response. They can press the government for action and gather evidence. If this petition reaches 100,000 signatures, the Committee will consider it for a debate.

    The Committee is made up of 11 MPs, from political parties in government and in opposition. It is entirely independent of the Government. Find out more about the Committee: https://petition.parliament.uk/help#petitions-committee

    Thanks,
    The Petitions team
    UK Government and Parliament "

    "
    You recently signed the petition:

    Provide Sirius minerals with full Loan Guarantee from HM treasury.
    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/269824

    Because of the General Election, the closing date for the petition you signed has changed. All petitions now have to close at 00:01am on 6 November. This is because Parliament will be dissolved, which means all parliamentary business – including petitions – will come to an end until after the election. This means the petitions site will be closed and people will not be able to start or sign petitions.

    We’re sorry we weren’t able to give you more notice that this would happen.

    The petition will be available for people to read on the site even though it will be closed for signatures. This petition won’t be reopened after the election.

    The Government can’t respond to petitions during the election period. This means if the petition has over 10,000 signatures, it can’t receive a response from the current Government after 5 November. After the election, the new Government will have to decide whether it wants to respond to petitions from before the election.

    The current Petitions Committee, the group of MPs who decide whether petitions are debated, won’t exist after 6 November. This means that if the petition has over 100,000 signatures, it can’t be scheduled for debate during this Parliament. After the election, there will be a new Petitions Committee, and they will be responsible for deciding which petitions are debated.

    The petitions site will open again after the election, but at the moment we don’t know exactly when. You can follow us on Twitter @HoCPetitions for updates, or check back on the petitions site for news if you prefer.

    Ahead of the General Election on 12 December, make sure you’re registered to vote. You can check whether you’re eligible to vote and find out how to register at: https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote. The deadline to register to vote is Tuesday 26 November.

    Many thanks,
    The Petitions team
    UK Government and Parliament. "


    WR
     
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  5. Groucho

    Groucho Member

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    8769FEDC-CCD6-42BA-B0EE-B3820A28BC70.jpeg
    Daily Mail 08/11/2019
     
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  6. Groucho

    Groucho Member

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    11 November 2019


    Sirius Minerals Plc

    Strategic Review Progress Update

    § Development work across the Project now slowed to allow for a six month strategic review period, funded by existing cash resources

    § Review of development plan and optimisation opportunities has produced a revised two-stage Project development plan comprising:

    o An Initial Scope to include progress of shaft sinking to achieve first polyhalite and Drive 1 MTS, significantly de-risking the construction of the Project. This work is estimated to require ~US$600 millionof funding to be raised

    o A Deferred Scope incorporating the remainder of construction activities required to deliver full production

    § Strategic partner and financial investor processes underway with the aim of securing ~US$600m of Initial Scope funding, with various parties engaged and assessing information

    § Strategic review demonstrates robust project values with current project Net Present Values for the 13Mtpa business case ranging from ~US$11 billion to US$13 billion and Internal Rates of Return ranging from 29% to 35% for a range of development scenarios subject to successful financing


    On 17 September 2019 Sirius Minerals Plc ("Sirius" or the "Company") announced that as a result of market conditions impacting its ability to deliver its Stage 2 Financing, it would be slowing the pace of development on its North Yorkshirepolyhalite project (the "Project") and undertaking a strategic review over a period of six months.

    The purpose of the strategic review is to consider and incorporate optimisations to the project development plan and to explore alternative financing solutions, including conducting a process with the aim of identifying and securing a strategic investor. The Company is pleased to provide an update on the progress of this work.

    Chris Fraser Managing Director and CEO of Sirius, comments:

    "Our focus during the first phase of the strategic review has been to reassess the best ways to unlock the value of our project for our shareholders, our community, the UK, and our customers all around the world.

    "Our analysis has identified a two-stage development plan that enables us to achieve the key de-risking milestone of first polyhalite, when the service shaft reaches the polyhalite ore body, with an upfront capital requirement of ~$600 million. The additional works required to reach an installed and ramped up production capacity of 10 Mtpa contemplates up to US$2.5 billion of capital expenditure.

    We are in discussions with potential strategic partners and debt investors with the aim of securing the best route to finance our revised initial scope of work and will update the market and our stakeholders on the progress of those when appropriate.

    The value of Sirius is unlocked by reaching production and delivering POLY4 to our customers around the world. This approach allows us to achieve that with less upfront capital while retaining the significant return opportunity it presents for our shareholders and stakeholders.

    "I would like to thank our employees, contractors and partners for their continued focus and commitment, and recognise that the progress achieved on the ground in recent months remains a source of huge inspiration for the whole team

    JSirius Minerals plc - Strategic Review Progress Update @siriusminerals https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/rns/announcement/61bd2aa5-a02c-46fa-8965-113c3e77b850
     
  7. Groucho

    Groucho Member

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  8. jeferey

    jeferey A Legendary Member

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    Investors Chronicle view:
    Sirius has quickly come up with a new route to production at Woodsmith. Only this plan looks a lot like the old plan, with $3.1bn still needed to get to full production. Mr Fraser wants to show financiers that polyhalite is marketable for $600m. This is really a cash injection to keep development moving while Sirius looks for full funding options. Sirius has modelled its new plan on getting development restarted on 1 April, which is an appropriate date. Sell.

    Last IC View: Sell, 4.3p, 19 Sep 2019

    Full article here (for those with IC subscription)
     
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  9. Groucho

    Groucho Member

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  10. Wilko

    Wilko Demi God of BlueShare

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    Interesting update today.

    Maybe not loads of completely new info - more confirmation of first step of what was hoped for.

    I'm sure the FT have updated their report since the initial version early on:

    https://www.ft.com/content/64f3e104-0459-11ea-9afa-d9e2401fa7ca

    and now include this which is especially interesting

    " Most of the $600m, which needs to be raised by the end of March, will come from debt investors, according to people briefed on the plans, with the balance from a strategic partner."

    " Analysts reckon a sovereign wealth fund or a potash producer could be a potential partner. The Qatar Investment Authority is effectively the biggest shareholder in Sirius. It owns a 3.3 per cent equity stake and $100m worth of convertible bonds."

    I had a feeling that the first quote was not in the earlier version and in the first version as well as reference to a sovereign wealth fund they had specifically name checked Eurochem as a possible - which has now been dropped.

    One would imagine Debt Investors quite likely means either more CB's or High rate loans with warrants.

    My take is CF seems to be saying ( or trying to say ) more than one option, which should be good as providing a competitive environment and we also trying to keep a lid on dilution.

    Remember CB's are just deferred equity.

    Impossible to guess the terms of any potential issues, so not actually moved that much further forward yet, but a step in the right direction imo and still a waiting game to see details of the $600m raise.

    Could well be why there was a positive effect on SP, but initial opening 4.1p not held through the day. Still alot of negative commentary around from the likes of IC and Russ Mould for two.

    I'm not sure what to make of the "Most of the $600m, which needs to be raised by the end of March, will come from debt investors" comments if true, since with a reduced average I was thinking the project would be more secure with a switch to a more equity based solution - all depends on the details I guess, interest rates and conversion terms/warrants.

    Thinking about it maybe $400m of bonds is on the cards as SXX had previously sold $400m ( I think ) of 5%/10% redemption CB's convertible @ 15p BUT under a different sceanario so a repeat now would preumably be less advantageous.

    Leaving $200m needed from strategic "Halo" investor. The Billion $ question being for how much more equity ?

    An interesting snippet from the investor call was I understood CF to say:

    "one of the advantages of a strategic partner would be the Halo effect and they would also be part of and support the deferred funding component."

    Or words to that effect.

    depending on the pricing It would be nice if there was some significant clawback facilty for existing shareholders to participate, but if $400m CB's are to be involved and only $200m straight equity there may not be much scope for that.

    Not really sure I've got any particular equity issue price in my mind now, too many potential moving parts ( higher the better of course ).

    Purely hypothetically - $200m equity @6p and $400m CB's converting @15p ( would be pleasantly surprised if it were 15p ) would require a further 6Bn shares on top of the existing 7Bn and then finally existing CB conversions approx 2Bn +/- = 15Bn ballpark fully diluted. compared to stage II version 2 fully diluted 10Bn ballpark.

    3.33bn out of 15Bn would be something like 22.2% fully diluted for a strategic partner paying $200m.

    All speculation of course - happy to wait and watch now to see what happens.

    Needs next stage of news before Christmas is probably about right - but who knows.

    GLA DYOR etc.
     
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  11. Graham Hacker

    Graham Hacker Moderator Moderator

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  12. Timeshare

    Timeshare A Legendary Member

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    Thought I should share reply from IR:

    Dear Mr Hall,

    Thank you for submitting your question to our webcast system on Monday. In response to your query:

    Are you able to give an indication of the numbers of potential partners & if they are in the financial or relevant commercial spheres?

    • I can confirm that various interested parties are in the process of undertaking due diligence related to the capital requirements of the Initial Scope. Unfortunately, we are unable to provide further details at this stage given the commercially sensitive nature of this due diligence process. We will provide an update on the outcome of this process at the appropriate point in time.

    Kind regards

    Jennifer

    Think I got a reply when Yeun? asked a similar question in the webcast --32mins 25secs in.

    https://nam05.safelinks.protection....HsTV4oPy+gcIW1FeC1qMtA2fdfwKsOAL0=&reserved=0
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2019
  13. Richard Faraway

    Richard Faraway A Legendary Member

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    Its a relief to know that radical finance proposals are being actively explored, after a long silence. I still have a fantasy that when Boris campaigns in North Yorks, he will be button-holed by locals who will impress on him (my wife is a North Yorks woman, and believe me, when they set out to impress a point, a tin hat is advisable) the merits of yet backing Sirius despite the Govt rebuff earlier in the year. If Govt support is to be announced, it will be before 12/12/19, for maximum electoral advantage. Offending EU regulations on government support for stricken businesses should not worry the Tories when they aim for us to be out anyway. 13 out of 54 Yorkshire Constituencies are marginals, and Conservatives will be desperate to find a local issue which might help hold theirs and gain others.
     
  14. Timeshare

    Timeshare A Legendary Member

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    I think that for the time being that boat has sailed. Once the $600M first tranch has been raised & the risk mitigated then the IPA (HMG) may provide a guarantee thereby ensuring we receive the remainder of the monies required to complete the build.
    What I cannot understand is why HMG would not provide a guarantee in the first place-even for the $600M.
    The economics, social impact & tax implications of the project are so compelling. It has been demonstrated that the markets have no appetite to fund the project & it seems that in that case it is a prime example of the government providing a guarantee, not money, to keep the project underway.
    We are not going to the moon but building shafts & that has been done B4-fifty years ago. We are not in the pick, shovel and blast age anymore. If everything must be risk free nothing worthwhile would be achieved.
    SM is a prime example that if the markets cannot stomach the calculated risk- HMG (IPA) should.
    Anyway I have put my money where my mouth is, yet again & reduced my average from 21p to 15p-foolish?
     
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2019
  15. Eureka1963

    Eureka1963 Demi God of BlueShare

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    I have to agree with your IPA assessment Timeshare but also appreciate why the IPA have resisted to support the Initial Scope element of the Project. The Company needs to demonstrate it can be revenue generating and this will only be achieved with the Initial Scope investment and its completion. Once this has been achieved it will unlock a number of funding opportunities that could be supported by the IPA?

    One question recently asked of IR was why would a Strategic Partner/Debt Investor provide $600m Initial Scope funding without any guarantee that the $2.5b Deferred Scope funding was in place?
    The response provided was that a Strategic Investor, (Debt Investor was not discussed but that serves as no indication as to how the Initial Scope funding is intended to be raised), the Company is seeking would invest based, in short, on the product and the financial metrics.

    It didn't really answer my question because clearly the funding for the Deferred Scope isn't guaranteed at this stage, however would an investor (Strategic or Debt) invest $600m without a financial safety net?
    If the Company can find a pathway to funding the Initial Scope then that answers my question.
     
  16. Groucho

    Groucho Member

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  17. Wilko

    Wilko Demi God of BlueShare

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    I think in a way the question has already been answered back at the time of Stage I funding. This was achieved on the "promise" that £x at that time would move the project to a point where it would be attractive enough for stage II to be raised.

    OK stage II hasn't worked so far, but in my eyes the broad principle is the same - with the benefit that the further we advance down the path the more the balance shifts progressively between past sunk costs and future funds to complete the project.

    CB's for example were probably used because CF thought it likely that the SP would be boosted and CB holders would sell short to cover their investment while continuing to collect the interest, ie raising more equity.

    I'm quite optimistic now, but then again i'm usually a "glass half full" sort of person. Just need to be patient to hear the details !

    GLA DYOR etc.
     
  18. Eureka1963

    Eureka1963 Demi God of BlueShare

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    Yes, however the $2.5b remains unfunded despite what the Company has stated in previous financial presentations, including the most recent. The $2.5b has not been guaranteed either by senior debts providers (with or without warrants - which would need to be consistent with each note issuance) or under the UK Guarantee Scheme, what we do know is that the Company has received extensive feedback from these parties on the terms at which they would feel comfortable with as a senior debt provider, hence the Strategic Review:

    17 September 2019 - Financing and development update
    “…The process will incorporate feedback from prospective credit providers around the risks associated with construction and will include seeking a major strategic partner for the Project.

    11 November 2019 - Strategic Review Progress Update
    As part of the strategic review process this strategy has been reassessed with the feedback and outcomes of the Stage 2 processes.

    One benefit of a strategic investor supporting the Initial Scope funding is that it may reduce the overall perceived risk for the Project from the point of view of potential financers of the additional financing required for the Deferred Scope.

    “…and a portion of the operating cash flow during ramp-up can be utilised to fund the Deferred Scope.

    “…The potential to incorporate material operating cash flow into the financing plan combined with the reduction in interest during construction provides significant benefit to the financing plan. This proposition would remove one of the key challenges of previous debt financing activities (where over US$1.5 billion was required to fund financing costs during construction).

    Any senior debt financing put in place for the Deferred Scope will be materially shaped by the outcome of the financing pathway for the Initial Scope. Following execution of the financing of the Initial Scope, the Company will commence engagement with senior debt providers with the aim of structuring a comprehensive financing plan for the Deferred Scope.

    The Initial Scope and the Deferred Scope funding are inter-linked (funding for the Initial Scope is material to the funding for the Deferred Scope) and although the senior debt funding is not guaranteed (at this stage) the parameters - de-risking of the Project to an acceptable level and revenue generation, I believe will secure the $2.5b necessary to fund the Project to 10 Mtpa.

    The successful $600m Initial Scope funding, for me, suggests that the $2.5b will be available to the Company along the timelines provided within the Strategic Review Progress Update. The senior debt providers presented feedback as to why they would not commit to the $2.5b and the Company, in its Strategic Review, has acted on that feedback and, imo, have addressed the criteria necessary to secure future senior debt funding.

    I do share your optimism despite the un-nerving financial concerns over the past c.12 months, and from my point of view I can see the pieces in this financial jigsaw coming together. Interestingly, from the recent Strategic Review Progress Update, it should be noted that “The Company is seeking to have the Initial Scope funded from the proceeds of either the strategic investor process or through a structured debt financing package”.
    I feel that the Company would prefer a Strategic Partner but if the demands are too high then there is the Debt Investor option. There are pro’s and con’s to both funding options. At least by having these options and with various interested parties this realises one of the Strategic Review Objectives, that being to ‘Protect and maximise shareholder value’. That said the realisation of failure to secure the Initial Scope funding is all too clear, and this will be reflected in the proposed funding terms.

    There remains an element of risk as a mining project though this reduces as the Project progresses during the Initial Scope, and if that risk requires additional funding on top of the $600m then this is where a Strategic Partner would be beneficial to the Project. There will, however, be an element of contingency within the Initial Scope funding to offset unforeseen expenses. The due diligence process undertaken by those involved will certainly evaluate those contingency risk factors.

    It is possible that the Initial Scope funding decision is a couple of months off as the progress of both the TBM and Shaft Sinking operations would be continually assessed before a final Initial Scope funding decision is reached by those concerned.

    When the Company (re-)engages with the senior debt providers it may be a case that as the Project has been considerably de-risked and revenue generating then the IPA* could support the Deferred Scope funding.

    *UK Guarantees Scheme (UKGS)
    The UKGS operates on a commercial basis, with borrowers paying a fee for the guarantee. Projects must be commercially sound to qualify for a guarantee, with a risk profile and revenue stream that makes commercial lending viable.
     
    Latest Given Reputation Points:
    avalanche359: 5 Points (Excellent analysis) Nov 17, 2019
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  19. Wilko

    Wilko Demi God of BlueShare

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    It does occur to me that the inclusion of the debt option is usefull in providing Sirius with some negotiating leaverage with a strategic partner if there is only one of those at the table.
     
  20. Wilko

    Wilko Demi God of BlueShare

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    Some reasonale sinking rates achieved by SBR in Belarus - see end:

    Sinking of Two Freeze Shafts by Using the Mechanized Shaft Boring Roadheader (SBR) Technology for the Slavkaliy Nezhinsky Potash Mine in Belarus Jochen Greinacher, CEO, Redpath Deilmann GmbH In 2017, Deilmann-Haniel signed a contract with IOO Slavkaliy to sink two 750 m deep freeze shafts for the Potash mine Nezhinsky in Belarus. This is the second shaft project where this technology was employed after two >1000 m deep shafts were sunk for a potash project in Saskatchewan, Canada, by application of the Herrenknecht Shaft Boring Roadheader (SBR) technology. Developed to sink shafts for greenfield projects in soft to medium hard rock in frozen or unfrozen geology, the technology uses a roadheader type cutterhead on a telescopic boom to mechanically excavate the rock and a pneumatic mucking system to convey the muck from the face into the buckets. This leads to a manless face during the sinking cycle and thus a significant improvement in terms of work place safety. For the Nezhinsky project, the SBR design was significantly modified in close cooperation between Deilmann-Haniel and Herrenknecht, based on the available experience and special requirements of the project. The modifications included adapting the Pneumatic Mucking System to cope with wet material (as well as dry material as originally planned) or moving the shaft lining from shotcrete application to jump for and tubbing installation for which a step-change hands-off tubbing erector for the placement of segments was designed. Further modifications to optimize the machine technology for the requirements during shaft sinking were applied on the two machines for the Slavkaliy project as well as several revisions to match the special project requirements. The SBR is suitable for soft and medium hard rock up to 100 MPa UCS. The main design limits are the maximum weight of the machine (400 tons) and length or height (50 m) due to SHAFT2019.CIM.ORG | #SDC2019 29 the depth of the pre-sink. The Pneumatic Mucking System was changed in all components, sheaves and rope arrangements were redesigned, and the concept of the hoist system was also re-engineered. The SBR in Belarus is configured for a daily sinking rate of 3 m and all systems behind the cutting boom are not the bottle neck of the whole system. The work on site began in November 2017, including freeze hole drilling, construction, site setup, and installation of hoist winches, permanent headgears and other components required for sinking. The SBRs arrived onsite in June/July 2018 and were preassembled on surface and then lowered in the 50 m pre-sink. SBR #1 started full face sinking in mid-December 2018, and SBR #2 in late January 2019. By the end of February 2019, SBR #1 and SBR #2 were at 150 and 100 m depth, respectively, and achieved up to 3.6 m/day concrete lined shaft.
     
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